框架木材价格

NAHB持续跟踪最新的木材价格和期货价格, 并概述了美国国内的行为.S. 框架木材市场. The information is sourced each week using the Random Lengths Framing Lumber Composite which is comprised using prices from the highest volume-producing regions of the U.S. 和加拿大. 其他木材价格，包括胶合板价格摘要如下.

美国的价格和趋势.S. 框架木材市场

Summary of the week-to-week lumber prices and plywood prices for the week ending May 31, 2024:

• 任意长度框架木材复合价格上涨了1.比前一周上涨6%.
  • 这是该指数连续第四周上升.
• 木材期货价格下跌.上周是1%，但现在上涨了2%.上个月增长了2%.
• 结构板复合价格上涨0.比前一周下降2%.
  • 的OSB价格下降0.2%
  • 西部冷杉胶合板价格持平
  • 南方黄松胶合板价格上涨0.1%

影响木材价格的关键因素

Softwood lumber prices have been especially volatile in recent years largely because of increased demand, 增加关税, 供应链瓶颈和国内生产不足. To address the high prices for lumber, NAHB has advocated for the following actions:

• Negotiate a long-term deal with Canada to reduce tariffs and boost imported lumber.
• Increase domestic production by seeking higher targets for timber sales from publicly-owned lands and opening up additional federal forest lands for logging.
• 减少你.S. 木材出口到中国和其他国际客户.
• Seek out new markets to reduce our nation’s reliance on Canadian lumber imports and make up for our domestic shortfall.
• Identify new markets (besides Canada) and work with countries already exporting softwood lumber to the United States to increase their exports here.

木材和木材价格对新房成本的影响

除了狭义的框架木材, 胶合板等产品, 的OSB, 碎料板, 纤维板, shakes and shingles make up a considerable portion of the total materials (and cost) of a new home.

Surveys conducted by 家居创新研究实验室 show that the average new single-family home uses more than 2,200平方英尺的软木胶合板, 超过6个,的OSB的800, 除了大约15个,000板英尺的框架木材. Softwood lumber is also an input into certain manufactured products used in residential construction — especially cabinets, 窗户, 门和桁架.

计算制造商的利润, sawmill prices for the lumber embodied in these products are marked up by the percent difference between receipts and cost of goods in the "wood product manufacturing" industry, 如美国国税局活跃公司报税表所示.

Final pricing for home buyers is somewhat higher because of factors such as interest on construction loans, 经纪人的费用, and margins required to attract capital and get construction loans underwritten. 正如NAHB的解释 监管成本研究, 用于施工过程中使用的物品, 最终的房价将比建筑商的成本高出近15%.

The bottom line is that changes in softwood lumber prices directly impact the price of a new home. 这, 与此同时，建筑工人的工资也在上涨，利率也在上升, 房地产市场正在经历的原因之一是什么 负担能力下降.

当较低的木材价格达到建筑商?

Homebuilders and remodelers begin to get price relief once mill prices have substantially decreased for an extended period and/or stabilized. 请注意，仅大幅度降价可能是不够的. Prices must fall for long enough periods of time to sufficiently lower a supplier’s average costs after a run-up.

Depending on the rate and consistency of price decreases and whether prices have stabilized at the lower level, it may take at least a few weeks to a couple of months for builders to see price relief on the order initially reported in the lumber futures or cash markets.

The length of this “waiting period” for lumber price reductions varies with builder size, 供应商的尺寸, 以及具体的建筑商-供应商关系. Buying power is positively correlated with the size of a residential construction firm, 而供应商的销售能力通常也是如此. The relative difference in market power between the buyer and seller is crucial in determining how quickly lower prices transmit to a customer.

建筑商木材成本为何随市场价格快速上涨?

与价格下跌的动态环境形成对比, higher prices reach builders much more quickly when market prices are increasing. The same forces that lead to large lags relative to mill prices on the way down can help explain why builders’ lumber costs may increase contemporaneously with mill prices.

当价格飙升时，批发商往往会“兴奋不已”. As the cost of their inventory is low relative to cash prices during these periods, 他们将按照或接近当前市场价格报价. The environment is one in which wholesalers are assured to buy low and sell high.

然而, wholesalers cannot predict when a bull market is going to end and buy their lumber according to how likely they believe it will last. As different buyers may have different forecasts, disparities in purchasing behavior can arise. A wholesaler who assumes lumber prices will keep rising for two months will buy more inventory than one assuming the run will last for only two weeks.

Retailers generally have less buying power than wholesalers have selling power. 在这种情况下，零售商(例如.g.(伐木场)被称为“价格接受者”.” As a result, their inventory costs tend to increase in step with market prices.

These higher costs are passed on to builders in order to maintain positive operating margins. 这 is why lumber retailers are less likely than wholesalers to realize outsized profits when prices are rising.

上面的分析是由 NAHB税收和贸易政策分析主任杰西·韦德说. Mr. Wade has expertise in tracking and analyzing short- and long-term trends in commodities pricing, 特别适用于框架木材, 钢, gypsum and other common building material products used in residential construction.